In the mid-1970s Iran was the second-largest exporter of petroleum and the fourth-largest producer of crude oil in the world. Over the years the country has lacked in this field due to the Iran-Iraq war that took place over the span of roughly nine years (1979-88). Iran has, since then, gotten back on its feet and moved toward rebuilding its great natural resource empire. Today, the sovereign nation is continuing to build its oil and natural gas industry, but not under the same international pressure it is receiving for its enrichment of uranium for ‘medical purposes.’

Over the weekend it became international news that Iran decided to forgo a U.N.-U.S. deal that allows for the enrichment of uranium outside Iranian borders. The deal was seen by many to be an excellent compromise for the country considering its history of aggression and the current presidency that has caused quite a stir over the last couple of years. It’s important to point out the many orations Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has given on the existence of Israel.

The Iranian president is quoted in stating that Israel is a ‘fake regime’ and ‘must be wiped off the face of the map’

Statements such as these are some of the main reasons the international community does not want Iran enriching uranium, the key ingredient in creating nuclear weaponry, for any purpose. So I think it’s safe to say at this point that sanctions against the country are a must, and by the looks of this week’s news, that is exactly what America and many of its allies think as well. The only problem is they probably won’t do much to impede Iranian decisions.

The United States is currently considering employing sanctions on a country that, at this point, has the financial backing to last for a considerable amount of time.

Another problem the United States could run into is China’s involvement with Iran. Both countries have been working together since the mid-2000s on a deal that will produce more Iranian oil.

China also imports large amounts of crude oil from the country, which it will probably continue to do after the sanctions are in place. Let’s not forget that China is on the U.N. Security Council, a position that allows for a veto on any resolution trying to be passed. Looking at history, this could potentially lead to a new Cuba on the rising.

After the United States placed sanctions on Cuba in the 1960s, the country managed to reach a point of equilibrium and sustain its economy for the most part. It even managed to work its way into being one of the leading countries in the field of medicine. With health care aside, I think Iran will do the same thing. It has the financial backing from China to stay in regional power, and its current president will stop at nothing to ensure that.

With that said, I will now be so bold as to state that there could be another Cold War on the rising. With any great war follows a sequel. Many would consider the last Great War to be the Cold War, which lasted from 1945 until 1991 when the Soviet Union broke. If you look at the current situation with Iran, all the cards are in place to suggest such a future event. Iran will take on the position as the ‘new Cuba,’ and China could play the part as the country vying for the top hegemonic position – the really late Soviet Union.

All you Middle East tourists should get a look at Iran while you still have the chance. I foresee traveling restrictions in the very near future.

John Sumpter is a junior international relations and Middle Eastern studies major. His column appears weekly and he can be reached at jfsumpte@syr.edu.

Published on February 10, 2010 at 12:00 pm