While President Barack Obama lauds the state of our union during his second such address to Congress on Tuesday, you may notice his chest puff out a little more than usual. After all, Obama is riding a modest hot streak — one that would have been hard to imagine after November’s midterm shellacking.

The president has enjoyed a boost to his approval ratings over the past few weeks. Gallup currently shows a 49-42 percent split, and many other national polls have Obama’s approval surpassing the ever-important 50 percent plateau.

But the State of the Union address will conclude Obama’s minor political comeback. It will mark a return to reality, and Obama’s recent uptick in the polls will soon be exposed as unsustainable.

The two reasons for Obama’s recovery lack longevity, and neither address the most pressing concerns of 2011. The first comes from his speech in Tucson, Ariz. And for good reason — his words were eloquent, unifying and much needed after the horrific massacre shook the nation.

But it is all too common for presidents to get a brief bounce in the polls when they give an important speech, especially in the face of heartbreaking tragedy. While certainly a nice moment for Obama, it is not nearly enough to permanently revive his struggling presidency.

Obama’s success will hinge on the speed at which the economy recovers. To put it another way, a 2 percent reduction in unemployment would benefit his approval ratings infinitely more than 25 Tucson speeches.

The second reason for Obama’s temporary popularity boost: the repeal of the ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy for gays and lesbians in the military. Perhaps the most hated piece of domestic legislation for liberals of this generation, the ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy can be fairly described as the boogeyman for progressives across the country.

When former President Bill Clinton agreed to the ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy in 1994, staunchly progressive Democrats were seething. They viewed it as a betrayal and felt sold out. Since then, the left-wing base has committed endless time and energy to bringing a healthy dose of social justice to the U.S. military.

In finally repealing the ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy, Obama makes his first significant overture to the progressive base — one that has not had much to cheer about over the past two years.

Obama pledged to close the detention camp at Guantanamo Bay — oops. Progress on gay marriage? Not really. Cap-and-trade legislation? Couldn’t make it out of the Senate. Even the enormous health care bill didn’t include a public option.

And despite the president’s 2009 Nobel Peace Prize, let us not forget his 30,000-troop surge in Afghanistan — because progressives surely don’t!

Other than the dire economic outlook, Obama’s failure to make inroads on a broadly progressive platform may be his biggest upcoming electoral problem. Aside from the repeal of the ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy, which had to be sneaked through Congress during a lame-duck session, he has not satisfied the left-wing base.

After two years in office, Obama has been defined as a committed liberal ideologue but without much to show for it.

This leaves Obama in political no man’s land. Conservatives and independents are alienated by a leftist-worldview-producing radical legislation, such as financial regulation and health care reform.

On the other end of the spectrum, Obama feels the heat from committed liberals who somehow do not think he has gone far enough to enact powerful change.

Of course, the Obama re-elect team does not have to worry about his base voting for the Republican nominee in 2012. But they should be concerned that progressives will stay home from the polls altogether.

This is normally the moment when Obama’s groupies point out that Clinton also had a tumultuous first two years, got walloped in the first midterm and then cruised to re-election in 1996. To automatically assume Obama will be able to do the same is the definition of a logical fallacy.

Don’t count on it.

Jimmy Paul is a senior political science major. His column appears every Tuesday, and he can be reached at jdpaul01@syr.edu.

Published on January 23, 2011 at 12:00 pm