Splice : Trophy throwdown: Predicting who will win 84th annual Academy Awards
With nostalgic films like ‘The Artist’ and ‘Hugo’ leading in nominations and Billy Crystal taking on hosting duties for the ninth time, the 84th Academy Awards might be the most traditional (translation: boring) ceremony to date. However, Oscar night has been known to shake up expectations with the occasional surprise upsets. Here’s how we imagine the pieces will fall at this Sunday’s ceremony.
Best Picture:
Phillips: ‘The Artist’
Thanks to a strange new voting system, there are nine best picture nominees this year. ‘War Horse’ might have won in a different year, and ‘Hugo’ merits much consideration for transforming 3-D into a viable art form. This year, the nostalgia of ‘The Artist’ has dominated in various award ceremonies. Look for it to be the second silent movie after 1927’s ‘Wings’ to win Best Picture.
Taroy: ‘The Descendants’
As the biggest crowd pleaser and highest-grossing nominee of the nine, ‘The Help’ seems poised for an upset, especially with the Screen Actors Guild’s support behind it. But without a crucial best director nomination, its best chances lie in the acting categories. Keep an eye on Alexander Payne’s ‘The Descendants,’ the family comedy-drama that picked up small guild awards in the last week of Oscar voting.
Best Director:
Phillips: Michel Hazanavicius — ‘The Artist’
With just a few rare exceptions, the best picture and best director choices go to the same movie. Hazanavicius may be victorious for bringing the art of silence to typically noisy 21st century movie theaters. Plus, he already picked up the Directors Guild of America Award. So far, only six directors with this honor have not gone on to win the Oscar. Hazanavicius might sidestep this statistic.
Taroy: Martin Scorsese — ‘Hugo’
The last time a film won the Golden Globe for best picture musical comedy and went on to win the Oscar for best picture and best director was ‘Oliver!’ in 1968. Since then, best director has gone to the director of a more serious film whenever Best Picture went to a lighter one. Although ‘The Artist’ seems all but locked for the big prize, ‘Hugo’ director Martin Scorsese’s director win at the Golden Globes might hint a split to come.
Best Actor:
Phillips: George Clooney — ‘The Descendants’
Jean Dujardin could capitalize off of the success of ‘The Artist’ and the SAG Award he won. However, George Clooney shed his A-list persona for the most vulnerable and human performance of his career. For that, he just might pick up his first ever Best Actor trophy.
Taroy: Jean Dujardin — ‘The Artist’
In a sweep, ‘The Artist’ will surely snag the golden man for its SAG-winning star. And in light of his recent win at the BAFTA Awards – the British equivalent of the Oscars – Dujardin has gained ground on presumed front-runner George Clooney. After months of charming audiences during his movie’s press tour, count on Dujardin to take center stage Sunday night.
Best Actress:
Phillips: Viola Davis — ‘The Help’
Meryl Streep seems like the obvious pick here, but the weak reception of ‘The Iron Lady’ will hurt the two-time Oscar winner’s chances. The front-runner is Viola Davis, who has swept the precursors and just might pick up her first Oscar.
Taroy: Rooney Mara — ‘The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’
Oscar likes to acknowledge young ingénues for impressive debuts, like Ellen Page in ‘Juno’ or Jennifer Lawrence in last year’s ‘Winter’s Bone.’ Mara is this year’s breakout star undergoing a complete mental and physical transformation for her grueling role. As a sleek and dangerous computer hacker, she’s undoubtedly the sexiest and most thrilling nominee of the bunch.
Best Supporting Actor:
Phillips: Christopher Plummer — ‘Beginners’
With an iconic acting career spanning more than 60 years, it’s perplexing that Christopher Plummer has not won an Oscar to this day. Consider his win for ‘Beginners’ to be a long overdue Lifetime Achievement Award.
Taroy: Max von Sydow — ‘Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close’
In spite of the movie’s polarizing reception, von Sydow’s unexpected nomination shows immense support within the academy. And as another overdue 82-year-old veteran, he could be the underdog to topple the seemingly unbeatable Plummer.
Best Supporting Actress:
Phillips: Octavia Spencer — ‘The Help’
She won just about every other award before she was nominated for her performance in ‘The Help.’ This win is basically a shoo-in.
Taroy: Jessica Chastain — ‘The Help’
2011 was Chastain’s year. Voters tend to favor breakout actresses, so who better to reward than Chastain, whose debut in seven movies this year — two of which are best picture nominees — is downright award-worthy?
Published on February 22, 2012 at 12:00 pm
